As global powers turn towards Africa in the face of persisting internal challenges, the continent stands at a pivotal crossroads — will it harness its demographic, economic, and geopolitical potential for anticipated growth, or allow fragmentation and insecurity to derail its promising future?
Leading global institutions, including the United Nations and the World Bank, are rooting for a meteoric rise of Africa — the least developed continent in the world today — deeming it as the continent of the future. Nonetheless, the destiny of Africa lies in its own hands.
The optimism of the continent’s fifteen million youths entering the workforce every year, however, depends on the African leadership. African leaders ought to grasp the continent’s immense potential and work towards elevating it to match the aspirations of its 1.5 billion residents.
Some forecast place Africa as the world’s second-fastest-growing region, trailing only behind East Asia in 2025. Over the next decade, Africa’s gross domestic production (GDP) is expected to rise by an average of 6% per annum, thanks to foreign direct investment, which went up from $15 billion in 2002 to $37 billion in 2006 and $46 billion in 2012.
However, GDP growth alone cannot justify that the continent is rising. This growth has to be accompanied by long-term economic transformation, which is what the continent really needs. Contrary to what so-called Afro-optimists argue, Africa is not yet rising but slowly emerging as an economic force after decades of decline.
The continent began to take off in the second half of the 20th century, with its population almost quadrupling in 50 years. While countries like Kenya and Congo in eastern and central Africa recorded the highest population growth, those in the south and north, notably South Africa and Tunisia, witnessed less. Though this trend is expected to continue till the end of this century, population growth alone has not propelled Africa to prosperity thus far.
The question then remains: Can Africa mobilize its huge population growth into economic development, and then invest the resultant wealth to improve the quality of life? Africa grapples with a myriad of entangled issues throughout the first quarter of the 21st century. This special report will look for answers to questions that keep Africans up all night.
“Whether Africa’s demography yields a dividend or disaster is up to its governments. Geopolitics may encourage great-power competition that the Africans can exploit. But the trend of rising nationalism and protectionism bode ill for it.”
What Africa will look like in one hundred years?
In many ways, there has never been a better time to be born an African. Since 1960, average life expectancy has steadily risen by more than half, from 41 years of age to 64. The share of children dying before their fifth birthday has fallen by three-quarters and the proportion of young Africans attending university has risen nine-fold since 1970.
Moreover, several recent studies project that Africa will be the only continent experiencing a population boom towards the end of this century.
By 2030, half of all new entrants into the global workforce will be from sub-Saharan Africa. By 2050, the region’s working-age population will still be rising while the same will be falling everywhere else. At that point, Africa will be home to approximately 2.5 billion people, or around a quarter of humanity.
Sub-Saharan Africa’s enormous demographic tailwind means the region will see the fastest GDP growth rates of 4 to 5% between now and 2050. By the middle of the century, the region’s overall GDP will be larger than any single economy, bar the US, China, and India.
By the year 2100, Africa will be home to 4.4 billion people – four times its current population and comprising over a third of the world’s population. In addition, as many as 13 of the world’s 20 biggest urban areas will be in Africa – up from just two today.
Such an increase, far larger than the global population increase of 53%, by 2100s will pose significant challenges. African governments will have to build states that can support ever-increasing amounts of people, while continuing to deal with issues such as poverty, conflict, disease, and access to education.
As the continent accommodates two out of five of the world’s people by 2100, it must create an infrastructure that will improve its people’s education, health and security, and economic prospects.
A growing young population is a boon for any thriving economy, but to a struggling one, it becomes a bane, leading to frustration and violence.
Whether Africa’s demography yields a dividend or disaster is up to its governments. Geopolitics may encourage great-power competition that the Africans can exploit. But the trend of rising nationalism and protectionism bode ill for it. It would be naive to think the world will be kinder to Africa. If the continent is to close the gap, it will have to do the arduous work itself.
Natural resources reserve of African economies
Africa’s potential is not confined to demographics. It can draw on abundant natural resources to create new industries and markets. With an estimated 40% of the world’s renewable-energy potential, the African continent is poised to be a global leader in climate adaptation through investment in infrastructure and digital technology.
Natural capital accounts for 19% of Africa’s total wealth compared to 7% for Latin America and the Caribbean, and 3% for developing Asia.
The status of Africa has worsened this year with a historic 29% fall in the price of raw materials, which account for 89% of its exports. The environmental crisis is also hampering its economic development.
Sahel: “An epicenter of global terrorism”
The Sahel region is a 5,900-km-long semi-arid stretch of landmass spread across the breadth of Africa, spanning across the Atlantic Ocean in the west and the Red Sea in the east, and wedged between the Sahara desert in the north and the woodland Savannas in the south.
The region encompasses 10 African countries facing economic, political, and social crises and turmoil. It is also one of the poorest regions in the world, with northern Nigeria housing the largest number of impoverished people on the planet.
An unprecedented explosion of conflicts has carved a trail of death and destruction across the breadth of Africa — from Mali near the continent’s western edge all the way to Sudan on its eastern edge.
Against such backdrop, the Sahel region is under the grip of Islamic terrorist groups. After Libya descended into anarchy, the huge arsenal of weapons that the Gaddafi government had accumulated during its over four decades rule fell into the hands of an assortment of forces, including those aligned to Al Qaeda and the Islamic State.
With such a stockpile of ordnance, terror groups have taken control of vast expanse of the Sahel territory and are establishing and expanding their strongholds.
This Sahel belt has turned into a fierce battleground, where an ugly war is unfolding between ruling forces and jihadists affiliates of terrorist fronts. The same war has displaced millions of people.
With this African swath emerging as the new epicenter of jihadist activity, the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) has recognized Sahel as the global “epicenter of terrorism” for the second year in a row.
Nowhere else have Islamist extremists recorded such stunning gains since the defeat of the Islamic State in the Middle East.
Four main terror outfits operate in the region — the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS), the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), a local al-Qaeda offshoot in Mali, and Boko Haram.
“The persistent and growing strength of violent extremist Islamic organizations threatens to exacerbate the humanitarian crisis and destabilize Africa, posing significant challenges to global security and economy.”
Underlying crises – Violence and deaths
Sahel accounts for over half of all radical Islamist terrorist fatalities amid rising violence throughout Africa, reflecting a deepening crisis.
According to the Institute of Economic and Peace (IEP), of the 7,555 terrorism-related deaths recorded worldwide in 2024, as many as 3,885 took place in Sahel, a ten-fold increase since 2019. Terrorism-related deaths surged by about 40% in the five most impacted countries in Sahel last year. Similarly, Niger witnessed the biggest rise in year-on-year terror deaths, climbing 94% to a total of 930 persons.
Violence, primarily led by JNIM and ISGS, has escalated in various regions such as central Mali, northern Burkina Faso, and western Niger.
A United Nations panel estimates that JNIM, the most active Al Qaeda faction in Sahel, has 5,000 to 6,000 fighters while 2,000 to 3,000 Jihadists belong to the Islamic State. These groups are not only solidifying their control over critical territories but also expanding into new areas.
The conflict in the central Sahel —in which civilians are bearing the brunt of the infighting — is likely to grow even more violent.
Conflict further deteriorates as terrorists intensify attacks
Ominous extremist forces gathering in Africa have developed a strong determination to seize the broad Sahel corridor, prizing it as an advantageous operating base.
Mali had become the first target of terrorist forces and other nations followed. The security situation in Burkina Faso, which saw its first major Islamist terrorist attack in 2015, has also deteriorated steadily, especially along the borders with Niger and Mali. These countries ceded substantial territory to jihadists and do not control swathes of their territory.
The freedom of maneuver the extremists have achieved coupled with porous borders and access to local resources is quite alarming. Affiliates of Al-Qaeda and Islamic State have been ramping up their attacks, launching relentless offensives into new countries, and seizing large swathes of Sahel territory.
While the terror threat varies from country to country, the activism of these groups in Sahel since 2012, and in Benin and Togo since 2021, shows that no West African nation is beyond their grasp.
On January 8 this year, members of the violent extremist outfit, Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims, attacked a fortified position held by the anti-terrorist initiative Operation Mirador in northern Benin. The attack at the Transfrontier W National Park resulted in the death of at least 30 Beninese soldiers – the heaviest loss of life ever recorded by Benin. The attack is a grim reminder of the threat the Sahel region faces from Islamist terrorism.
Elsewhere, Boko Haram launched a series of attacks on Chadian forces, killing over 50 soldiers. The group kept Chad on edge before they mounted a daring attack on the presidential palace in Ndjamena, targeting Chadian President Mahamat Deby, in January 2025.
As per the Global Terrorism Index (GTI), Burkina Faso “remained the country most affected by terrorism for the second year in a row” in 2024.
The spread of radical Islamist violence in the Sahel poses a growing threat to regional stability. With terror groups targeting vital trade routes and exploiting smuggling networks, the need for enhanced security and cooperation between affected nations is urgent to curb this violent expansion.
Why the surge in attacks?
Terrorism is changing modus operandi, showing adaptability in terms of geography, methods of action and resource acquisition.
And Jihadists view to exploit the recent war in Sudan to gain ground.
In Sudan, the government’s “total war” strategy, which involves arming tens of thousands of civilians as militias, is already spiraling into chaos and spurring ethnic violence and loss of lives.
Taming this threat of violent extremism is crucial not only for Sudan, but for the global security. However, undermining this threat — unique and isolated from most of the conflicts in Sahel — will only impede the efforts of those striving for peace in the region.
Likelihood of a jihadist state in West Africa
The drums of global jihadist are again sounding in Africa. There will be no sudden silencing the guns in 2025.
The persistent and growing strength of violent extremist Islamic organizations threatens to exacerbate the humanitarian crisis and destabilize Africa, posing significant challenges to global security and economy.
Islamist religious terrorism has been on the rise in recent years as a counterbalance to US power in the Cold War. The continuing erosion of international counter-terrorism support as well as weakening concerted efforts at the regional level has created a favorable vacuum for violent radical extremism to flourish.
Sahel is one of the predominant scenarios mirroring Afghanistan as it is an area with pre-existing political-socioeconomic instability that terrorists have taken advantage of. To prevail against jihadists in Sahel, the West must learn from its past mistakes.
The history of Islamist extremism also warns that radical forces often use local strongholds as a springboard to conduct violent attacks against the West and in other foreign lands. The stakes are high as repercussions could easily extend beyond African borders.
As jihadists gain control of key roads, capitals are now reeling under the threats of attack and siege. If the Jihadist continue gaining strength at their current rate, they will be positioned to force the governments out of population centers. This would render these countries as failed states, paving the path for jihadist groups to establish an Islamist state.
The deterioration of the security environment in the Sahel is marked by an array of differing actors, drivers, and motivations, calling for contextualized responses.
The “hidden hand” of the Muslim Brothers “al-Ikhwan al-Muslimin” in Arabic ideology remains the key to either prolonged chaos or other courses.
The Root Causes
The reasons behind terrorism gaining hold in Africa are manifold: economic hardship in the already underdeveloped countries, forced displacement, and increasing violence around population centers being some.
According to a report by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), the lack of employment opportunities — more than religious belief — is a major catalyst behind young people joining fast-growing terror groups in sub-Saharan Africa.
In Sahel, a large base of the population living below the poverty line serves as a wide pool of recruits for jihadists. Sahel has 150 million inhabitants, 64% of whom are mostly Sunni Muslims under the age of 25. The rate of incidence of poverty based on the national poverty line is 41.15% (data is available only for four countries and of 2018).
The UNDP report found that 25% of voluntary recruits to such terrorist outfits cited financial prospect as their primary reason for joining, while 22% said they joined to be with family and friends, and 17% cited religious ideas. The UNDP findings were based on interviews with hundreds of former terrorists.
Terrorism is being driven by the proliferation of violent extremist groups. Jihadists use a mixture of coercion and other tactics such as pledge of access to basic services, establishing their systems of governance, including local courts, before rural communities that have long bemoaned the neglect of weak and corrupt central governments.
Increasing discontent over the rising cost of living and poor governance has become a common drive for electorates to penalize incumbent parties at the polls, a challenge for governments facing elections this year. Reducing poverty and fostering job-creating economic growth for governments remain critical priorities because about 464 million people in the region live in extreme poverty.
Persistent poverty, scarce economic opportunities, the effects of climate change, and weak governance compounded by rising living costs are fueling widespread social frustration.
Economic desperation as well as frustration – resulting from a lack of rule of order – has developed a fertile ground for the jihadists, who are exploiting this turmoil and further stoking it, at times.
The alarming situation has caused economic hardship in the already underdeveloped countries along with forced displacement and increasing violence around population centers. It has also contributed to political instability, partially inspired by the perception that the government cannot provide security.
The path to peace
If Sahelian governments are to overcome jihadist insurgencies, they must revise strategy and rethink counterinsurgency moves. Their policy objectives should focus on serving their own population, securing localities, and improving governance rather than aligning along jihadist ideologies. Governments should regain the trust of the population and convince them that they would protect and serve their interests. If such an atmosphere develops, locals will be resilient to Jihadist incursions and recruitment. Once localities are more secure, Sahelian governments must increase their presence, especially in rural areas vulnerable to jihadist incursions.
Only security and governance will prevent jihadists from controlling territory, thereby restoring stability in Sahel and reducing the transnational threats. If Sahelian countries fail to do so, insurgencies will pose progressively larger threats to the region, West Africa, and the international community, particularly Western countries.
Combating radicalization in Sahel is not just a question of fighting extremist groups but also reducing perceived marginalization as well as increasing economic opportunity in rural areas. Radicalization – often wrongly tied to religion – is expected to grow and thrive unless the drivers of violence are addressed.
Western powers that previously invested in trying to keep the jihadists at bay have little muscle left on the ground.
France has proven to be the leader of the Western initiative in the region and has made progress in the region. However, the West, especially European countries, must start paying more attention to the causes of the problems in this region by gathering data and understanding ground reality. Only then, they will be able to address these problems effectively, helping the existing regional institutions looking for long-term solutions that will serve the population.
By prioritizing an in-depth understanding of their roles, Muslims and Western nations can begin to dismantle the Jihad that has destabilized the region. Without this critical approach, Sahel risks becoming an entrenched battlefield where the violence of radical Islam perpetuates, humanitarian crises worsen and hope for stability continues to slip further away.
The path to peace runs through the shadowy network of Brotherhood leadership, and until this network is fully dismantled, the region will continue to unravel and lead us into a deeper conflict.
Security concerns dampening African economic prospect
An abundance of natural resources, a young population eager to work and cross-border economic reforms position Africa as a global player in trade and commerce in the 21st century.
The African Development Bank this year projects an annual economic growth rate of 4.3%, up from 3.7% last year, with East Africa once again set to be the most buoyant region. This year, Africa will be the second-fastest-growing region globally.
Over the next decade, Africa’s GDP is expected to rise by an average of 6% per annum, thanks to foreign direct investment, which has gone up from $15 billion in 2002 to $37 billion in 2006 and $46 billion in 2012.
However, conflict is a major issue for many African nations in forms of civil war, inter-state conflict or domestic radical Islamic terrorism.
Though Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, and Tanzania are politically stable, they have endured hard knocks on their economies due to recent conflicts in neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan, and South Sudan.
Beyond the region, Sudan has a ripple effect on the global economy. It is the world’s largest exporter of oil seeds such as groundnuts, sunflower, soybean, safflower, and sesame. It is also Africa’s third largest producer of gold after Ghana and South Africa. Sudan produces over 80% of the world’s gum Arabic, a miracle commodity used in soft drinks, food additives, paint, cosmetics and more. About 50% of Sudan’s gum Arabic is acquired by European companies.
Since the current conflict erupted in April 2023, uncertainties around supply chains have left international consumer-goods companies in panic, rushing to stock up on these essentials. Sudan’s main trading partners are the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, China, India, and Italy. Russia is also a major trade partner, with strengthened ties that is leveraged for military support.
Evaluating Sudan’s significance, the international community cannot afford to ignore the current war, which has the potential to upend critical flows of essential goods to countries around the world.
These conflicts have disrupted the flow of goods, food security, and caused human displacement, all of which add a burden to the economies.
The ongoing conflicts are causing Africa to lose $18 billion annually.
A booming economy has made a significant difference. Africa has become the world’s fastest-growing continent just now. Over the past ten years, net income per person has increased by more than 30%, whereas in the previous 20 years, it shrank by 10%.
What does the continent’s booming economic growth mean for its people, and will it lead to inclusive, sustainable development? How can Africa unlock its development potential and bring prosperity to all? And what lessons do these challenges offer to an understanding of what development really means?
Development indicators
African statistics are often unreliable, but broadly the numbers suggest that human development in sub–Saharan Africa has made huge leaps.
The last two decades have seen steady improvements in life expectancy, per capita income and access to education — to the extent that a child born in Africa today has a better chance of living longer, escaping extreme poverty, receiving a primary school education and joining a growing economy than ever before.
Secondary school enrolment grew by 48% between 2000 and 2008 after many states expanded their education programs and scrapped school fees.
Over the past decade, malaria deaths declined by 30% and HIV infections by up to 74%.
Life expectancy across Africa has increased by about 10% and child mortality rates have been falling steeply. Average life expectancy stands at 63 years.
The Ibrahim Index of African Governance that examines how well governments have delivered on policies and services, including security, health, education, rights, and democratic participation, showed that COVID contributed to stalling the progress on these indicators since past three years.
But optimists will note that the trend has slowed in the past five years. Meanwhile, most of Africa’s children are healthier and better educated than ever. That is undoubtedly cause for cheer.
Worrying divergences
Data in seven of the 10 countries show that the adult literacy rate (over 15 years of age) is 56.06%. However, in reality, it is not the same for all countries: adult literacy in Algeria is 81.40% whereas in Niger or Mali, its only 35%. The rate on the incidence of poverty based on the national poverty line is 41.15% (only four countries have 2018 data).
Despite having almost 20% of the global population, Africa’s 54 countries account for less than 3% of global GDP. While nations such as South Africa and Egypt enjoy relative wealth, the African continent is home to three quarters of the world’s poorest countries.
The Ibrahim Index of African Governance — an ambitious effort involving one hundred indicators of such as political participation, respect for human rights and sound economic management, among others — shows a worrying divergence.
Of the 26 indicators related to health, welfare, and education, 21 have improved over the past decade. At the other end of the spectrum, improvements in health, education and social services were led by Rwanda, Ethiopian and Togo.
But 18 of the 26 measures of safety, stability and the rule of law have deteriorated. In 28 countries, development indicators improved while security indicators deteriorated.
Overall, instability on the continent has increased. Civil wars in several countries, such as Sudan, South Sudan, and the Central African Republic, drag down the numbers.
As per an assessment of the continent, Africa is less safe, secure, and democratic than a decade ago, with insecurity impeding progress in health, education, and economic sectors.
How Africa can seize opportunity presented by US, China trade war?
The African investment environment is at its worst in years.
Most African economies lack what they need for transformational economic growth: a well-educated workforce, reliable roads and electricity, and well resourced, responsible governments.
Investment financing will be key to realizing all these ambitions, and development aid can have an outsized impact. The world’s 26 poorest economies, most of which are in Africa, are deeper in debt today than at any time in the past 18 years, yet global aid as a share of their GDP has fallen to a two-decade low.
Realizing all that green-energy promise will require broad spending, but over the past decade only 2% of global renewable energy investments have reached the continent.
As the global south houses three-fourths of humanity and over 39% of the global GDP, there is a growing call to reform existing structures towards a more inclusive and representative system focused on development.
When starting from a lower base and with access to enough finance, poor countries can spark stellar economic growth through big improvements in electricity, roads, and literacy.
Many economists believe that Africa will be able to leapfrog to advanced technologies without having to follow the path traditionally taken by industrialized countries. Take, for example, the telephone. Africa has bypassed traditional landline technology and gone directly to mobile phone use, which is expanding rapidly by 500 million users out of 1.2 billion inhabitants. In the same way, Africa could significantly speed up the electrification of the continent by leapfrogging to distribute decentralized solar generation while reducing the need to build power distribution grids connected to each village.
But if finances are tight despite a few of the drivers of growth being in place, they can undershoot their potential for extended periods. That may well be the fate of many African countries in the coming years.
There is little doubt that the security landscape on the continent is as worrying as it has been in years.
Political instability is also an issue on investors’ minds. The unrest is present in parts of the region, including South Africa and Niger. Moreover, stock markets are not as well-regulated as in developed economies, and there is a risk that reforms to foreign ownership regulations will be paused or even reversed.
Political efforts are made to mediate the conflict and chart a path to peace; there is a critical role that corporates play in peace building efforts.
In most of Africa, most people remain under the poverty line, and productivity growth remains sluggish. If that continues, the continent’s young workforce will not be able to become the driver of the change they ought to be.
The consequences for Africa of simply carrying on as usual would be dire. If the Africa gap gets bigger, Africans will make up all the world’s extremely poor, including the most vulnerable to climate change. That would be a moral disaster. It would also, through migration flows and political volatility, threaten the stability of the rest of the world.
France
Overview
In August 1958, Charles de Gaulle, who had just returned to power in France, set off on a tour of his country’s sub-Saharan African colonies. His purpose was to present them with a plan to join France in a new kind of “community.” Paris would continue to control what it called “state services,” which included defense, monetary matters, customs, as well as media and communications. A new quasi-limited autonomy, meanwhile, would allow African countries to manage their domestic affairs and to carry the costs, once largely borne by France.
De Gaulle, who became president of the Fifth Republic, wanted a Franco-African community that would grant autonomy and authority of internal governance to the African Colonies while France retained control over essential areas such as defense, foreign affairs, and economic and monetary policy – establishing the postcolonial system of French political, economic, and military influence over its former colonies.
The world is changing, and there are growing reasons to think that France’s longtime arrangement with African partners has become more threatened and unsustainable over time. Experts argue that anti-French sentiment in Africa is not new but has intensified in recent years.
“As France navigates this complex decision, it must carefully weigh the consequences to avoid unravelling an empire intricately linked to the African continent for centuries.”
France’s waning influence in West Africa
France has stood as the dominant force in the Sahel region in Africa for decades. Its presence, rooted in a dark colonial history, contemporarily has been framed around countering terrorism and ensuring the resilience of supply chains and exports.
France’s military presence in Francophone Africa evolved strategically over the past 65 years. Its troops acted as the de facto guarantors of stability in its former colonies. Through operations such as Serval, Sangaris, and Barkhane, France justified its interventions as necessary to combat terrorism, particularly in the Sahel region — one of the African regions where French domination has been pervasive over the decades.
More than 80 years later, there is a remarkable uprising against French influence in the Sahel.
One after another, the leaders of three states in this semi-arid region—Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali—have spoken out against French sway in West Africa and moved to reduce or eliminate the presence of French soldiers, corporations, and diplomats in their countries.
They have blamed Paris for a host of problems, ranging from a long-running but ineffective and often disruptive French-led campaign to contain the spread of Radical Islamic insurgencies in the Sahel, to interference in their domestic politics, to profiteering from starkly unequal economic ties.
By early 2025, France finds itself unceremoniously ejected from over 70% of the African nations where its troops once strutted with impunity. What remains of its military presence is a ghostly echo of 1,500 soldiers in Djibouti and 350 in Gabon. The grand retreat is nearly complete.
The closure of the bases signals the end of France’s capacity to intervene – whether justifiably or otherwise – in certain conflicts across Africa. This erodes its influence in the region, particularly as conflicts intensify across the continent and more African countries seek security partners. Addressing, stabilizing, or resolving these conflicts requires a combination of diplomacy and military intervention.
Russia is filling these security vacuums as fast as it can. Within months of French troops withdrawal from Mali last year, Moscow promptly signed a security pact. Others are imminent.
France’s setback in West Africa has served a wake-up call, shattering its traditional focus on military-centered hegemony, and highlighting the need to build equal and genuine partnerships across the continent.
The decline of French influence — the end of Françafrique?
Security and diplomatic setbacks have a direct impact on French soft power which is crucial if Paris wants to uphold its international influence in the face of competition from more militarily and economically powerful challengers.
Snubbed by their former colonial rulers, African states are turning their back on France, undermining its cultural pull. In July 2023, Mali adopted a new constitution abandoning French as an official language. Rwanda has already replaced French with English in schools and universities, while Togo and Gabon joined the Commonwealth in 2022.
The moves are also seen as the unravelling of FrancAfrique.
The changing sentiments also reflect a simple fact: the vast majority of Africans are too young today to live under the French rule. Much of Francophone Africa won independence in 1960. The last French colony, Djibouti, became independent in 1977.
After decades of wielding political, military, and economic power across Africa, France is scaling back its presence on the continent as it faces significant resentment in many African countries.
For France, this means acknowledging that its influence in Africa will never return to what it once was – and that success lies in adapting to this new reality.
Paris faces the biggest challenge in decades
There are three hundred million French speakers worldwide today, up almost 10% since 2014, and a recent survey showed that 44% of them live in sub–Saharan Africa. By 2050, as much as 85% of French speakers could live on the continent, according to an estimate by an organization that monitors statistics on who speaks the language.
It is urgent that France redefine its African policy. The friendship and ties that Paris has built over time with Africa, with its political, economic, and thought leaders, justify doing everything possible to build new cooperation in all sectors: culture and education; health and pharmaceuticals; energy and mining; agriculture and food industry; transportation and infrastructure.
As France navigates this complex decision, it must carefully weigh the consequences to avoid unravelling an empire intricately linked to the African continent for centuries. The future of France and its place in the world may well depend on the choices it makes regarding its African engagements.
French trade with Africa declines
Trade between France and sub-Saharan Africa (48 countries) is on dwindling trend, according to the French Ministry of Finance.
The African countries sit on vast sources of natural resources and critical minerals such as uranium, gold, and precious metals that are vital in France and the West’s production of batteries for electric vehicles, magnets for wind turbines, semi-conductors, fiber-optic cables, and mobile phones, for example.
In 2023, Africa accounted for only 1.9% of France foreign trade comprising 15% of its supply of strategic minerals, and 11.6% of its oil and gas supply. The same in 2024 fell to 1.8%.
France’s top two trading partners in sub-Saharan Africa are Nigeria and South Africa — former British colonies that never hosted a French military base. Indeed, African nations are forging partnerships with diverse players, such as China, India, and the United Arab Emirates, moving away from the historical ties that once tethered them to France.
Not only is there economic and material interest for Russia and China in entrenching their involvement in the Sahel, but a soft-power element makes the region a new battleground in the global contest for influence with far reaching implications for Africa, Europe and beyond.
The numbers tell a clear story. Between 2010 and 2023, Chinese investments in Africa surged by 200%, exceeding $200 billion annually. Meanwhile, France’s share of foreign direct investment has steadily declined. This economic realignment is redefining partnerships across the continent.
This decline in both hard and soft power will inevitably have an impact on France’s economic footprint on the continent. The cultural affinity, which African elites develop for France while completing degrees at French universities, has traditionally been a key driver of France’s international trade. However, a decline in the uptake of such opportunities will inevitably dampen commercial ties.
Paris will need to come to terms, at least in the short term, that it will have less control over what is happening in the Sahel region — including when it comes to fighting terrorism and re-engaging with African governments throughout the continent in a new, less militarized way.
If it fails to do so, France runs a considerable risk of being relegated to the sidelines in the continent, dampening Paris’ efforts to keep France relevant in a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape where military agreements and historical ties have less importance.
A reset of policy
While economic, political and influence competition is exacerbating in Africa, Paris cannot remain on the sidelines. But, at this pivotal moment, it has yet to fully concretize a new beginning, the rebound of French policy in Africa.
France’s new strategy for partnership with African countries should clearly demonstrate Paris’ desire to redress its past mistakes and reimagine its diplomatic outreach in Africa. Opportunity has presented itself for France to regain its lost popularity and reassess its security-first approach in the continent.
While military interventions in Africa no longer have the desired influence, it would take some time before we can gauge if a new strategy truly enables France to break away from its past approach towards Africa.
French President Emmanuel Macron’s efforts to “reset” France’s relationship with its former African colonies appear to be faltering. Seven years after coming to power with promises of reform, a growing number of West African nations — seeking departure of French troops — signal a breakdown in relations.
One can note that the forced expulsion of French troops and diplomats from countries including Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, are not ringing endorsements of a continued French presence. In fact, the direction governments of these states took seem to be in contrast to the interests of Paris and reflected by warming relations with Russia and China.
Why is this shift important?
The withdrawal of French troops from West Africa is a manifestation of deeper historical grievances, contemporary frustrations, and the changing geopolitical landscape. It reflects a region increasingly eager to assert its sovereignty, manage its own security, and diversify its international partnerships. This trend is not just a rejection of France but a broader shift toward redefining the relationship between Africa and external powers.
As most Francophone African countries celebrate their 55 years of independence this year, this may be a suitable time to reassess relations between them and France.
Different approach
As France retreats, Africa is looking eastward. Russia, China, and other nations are stepping in to fill the void, offering partnerships that, at least on the surface, appear more equitable. Russia has already established a presence in Mali and Burkina Faso, providing security assistance in exchange for access to natural resources.
China, with its Belt and Road Initiative, is investing heavily in infrastructure projects across the continent.
While these new alliances come with their own risks, they represent a break from the historical dominance of Western powers. For the first time in centuries, African nations have the opportunity to negotiate on their own terms, the shift is not just geopolitical; it is psychological. It signals the end of the colonial mindset and the beginning of a new era for Africa.
Moreover, the rise of new alliances brings its own set of challenges. Russia and China, for all their promises, are not altruistic actors. Their interests in Africa are driven by their own strategic and economic agendas. African nations must tread carefully, ensuring that they do not replace one form of dependency with another.
Economically, China is the big winner in the region, and now the biggest investor in the continent, followed by the USA, then France, with growing interest coming from Britain, Germany, Türkiye, and Japan.
The result is that China, as of 2019, had a total $165 billion in direct investments in Africa, according to a study by the London School of Economics. In the new Great Game in Africa, the most powerful weapon is money.
The challenge moving forward will be for African countries to balance national sovereignty with the need for stable, democratic governance. Without significant internal reforms, external military interventions — whether by France, Russia, or other powers — will continue to shape the political landscape, often at the expense of democratic ideals.
How has Russia, China and UAE benefited from this?
African leaders’ enthusiasm for a multipolar world makes greatest sense economically. About half of the 1.2 billion people living in sub-Saharan Africa lack electricity. And some 400m people on the continent cannot access clean drinking water.
Sorting all this requires vast investments. The World Bank estimates sub-Saharan Africa needs investment worth about 7% of its GDP in infrastructure every year to achieve near-universal access to water and electricity as well as improved roads by 2030. Current investments are only about half of that.
For African leaders that makes diversifying their sources of funding further even more important. It is beginning to happen. Over the last decade, GCC countries have collectively invested over $100 billion in Africa. The UAE has invested $59.4 billion. Saudi Arabia and Qatar have invested $25.6 billion and $7.2 billion, respectively.
The trade between Saudi Arabia and sub-Saharan Africa is now twelve times the value it was a decade ago. Similarly, the sum of imports and exports between UAE and sub-Saharan Africa increased by over 30% in the same period. Turkish construction firms have completed some $85bn-worth of projects in Africa. These investments and partnerships are timely and much needed.
According to Africa Finance Corporation, Africa has a $150 billion infrastructure funding gap, and UNCTAD’s World Investment Report concluded that FDI flows to Africa declined to $45 billion in 2022 from the record $80 billion set in 2021.
Moreover, China’s investments and loans in Africa have shown a notable decline in recent years. This shift is attributed to several factors including China’s own economic challenges and shifting priorities towards more sustainable development models.
Consequently, the United Arab Emirates also has been increasing investment in Africa in the humanitarian, infrastructure, telecoms, and agriculture sectors in recent years.
The UAE has invested $60bn across the continent in the past decade, making it the fourth-biggest investor in that time after China, America, and Europe.
The Dragon and the Bear in Africa
From civil wars and insurgencies to ethnic tensions and resource-based disputes, Africa has long been a continent marred by conflicts, resulting in widespread instability and humanitarian crises. The region is also becoming a battleground for global power struggle.
In recent years, Africa has emerged as the focal point of global competition, with major powers vying for influence over the continent. The abundance of natural resources, a young and growing population and untapped economic potential have drawn the attention of global actors, including China, Russia, the United States, and the European Union.
Africa is now a crucial arena where these global powers seek to extend their geopolitical influence, economic investments, and strategic interests.
However, the approaches of China and Russia have begun to overshadow those of the West, as both nations use unique and, sometimes, complementary strategies to assert dominance over the continent.
Africa’s allure
Africa’s major attraction is, of course, its resource wealth. This has become even more pronounced and taken on extraordinary importance in the push towards alternative sources of energy, both renewable and non-renewable.
For instance, the extraction of critical minerals such as cobalt is aided by advancement in technological innovation. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is the world leading producer of cobalt, which is needed to make device screens among other things.
At the same time, the oil reserves of Algeria, Angola and Nigeria will become increasingly important as countries look to diversify away from Russia for natural gas, and from fossil fuels more broadly.
Then there are the trade routes. The Red Sea route, which straddles northeast Africa and links it to the Indian Ocean, constitutes 10% of annual global trade.
The Red Sea route passes through Eritrea, Sudan, and Somalia — the three countries Russia has been actively courting.
For its part, China has earmarked the route through its Maritime Silk Road initiative. China aims to boost port infrastructure among countries with Indian Ocean coastlines.
Lastly, Africa is home to the fastest-growing youth population. This will be important in the search for future markets, particularly in sectors such as technology and education.
Africa’s population is growing faster than that of any other continent, and Africans are moving to cities faster than people elsewhere. Both these trends will drive demand.
The dragon’s share
The dragon’s share will be built by Chinese firms, which in 2020 were responsible for 31% of all infrastructure projects in Africa with a value of $50m or more. This was up from 12% in 2013. Western firms were responsible for just 12% or so compared with 37% in 2013.
One out of every three major infrastructure projects in Africa is built by Chinese state-owned enterprises, and one out of every five is financed by a Chinese policy bank.
In 1990s, American and European companies scooped up more than 85% of construction contracts on the continent. Chinese firms did not even get a mention. Now Western firms are struggling to win business in a fast-growing market. The World Bank predicts that demand for infrastructure spending alone will be more than $300bn a year.
The fact is that China and Russia have in the last two decades been pouring in investments in industry and building huge infrastructures. The US all along did not bother to assess why the Chinese were engaged overtime in investment activity. Its hibernation proved Washington’s loss and Beijing’s gain.
Given the long lead that Beijing and Moscow have taken over the past two decades in Africa, Washington has a very steep climb ahead to catch up. Given the race for African attention, the big powers will be more visible in their scramble for influence and investment in the continent.
“Africa – the next growth hotspot”
Africa will become, as the Chinese would say, the world’s next growth hotspot. With a few exceptions, such as Sudan, sub-Saharan Africa is poised for takeoff.
China has led the way on investment in Africa. From 2000-2022 Chinese state financiers lent it $170bn, about two-thirds of which was for infrastructure such as roads, railways, and ports. The average Chinese project raised annual GDP growth by a healthy 0.41 to 1.49 percentage points after two years.
Now, China is dominant on the continent. China is Africa’s largest bilateral trade partner, the leading bilateral creditor, and the biggest investor.
For 35 years, the first foreign trip of the year has always taken the Chinese foreign minister to Africa.
China’s interest and influence continue to grow in countries across Africa. Beijing buys political support and access to raw materials with major infrastructure investments.
*China and Russia battle it out over Africa
The growing presence of China and Russia in Africa has captured the attention of both Africa and the West as Chinese and Russians trade and investments have eclipsed those of Europe and the United States.
China’s long game in Africa is not just about economic influence or military strength. It is also about the subtle art of diplomacy and influence.
The growing stature of China in Africa, in what China calls the “new era,” has markedly upset the established geopolitical configurations in the continent and Africa’s perceptions about China.
Chinese interests
For over two decades, China’s burgeoning influence in Africa was symbolized by grand displays of infrastructural might. From gleaning towers to expensive airports and ports dotting the continent’s shorelines, China’s investments on the continent have surged, reaching over USD 700 billion last year under the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s massive global infrastructure project.
With strategic bases and mammoth trade deals, Beijing’s influence in Africa moves beyond trade to empire-building, posing myriad challenges to the West.
At the latest triennial Africa-China summit, President Xi Jinping announced $50bn in financing over the next three years. There is more to the figure than meets the eye. Some $10bn will go to Chinese firms in Africa; $30bn is in the form of vague “credit lines”. At the summit there was talk about how “small is beautiful.” But big is needed.
In addition to its economic impact, Beijing is expanding its influence by protecting its substantial investments and the estimated one million Chinese nationals residing across Africa. China has deployed more than twenty private security organizations in over 30 African countries like Nigeria and South Africa, where Chinese expatriates are prevalent. These security services, which are primarily provided by Chinese corporations that provide risk assessments, training, and economic asset protection, demonstrate Beijing’s emphasis on protecting its burgeoning interests on the continent.
In recent decades, the resurgence of great power competition has seen both Russia and China assert their influence in Africa, often positioning themselves as alternatives to Western partnerships.
Beijing is not the only foreign power jostling for influence in Africa. In recent years, Russia too has sought to expand and has made a play for the hearts and minds of African people with a deft mix of persuasion, power, and money as a potential conduit for its geopolitical ambitions.
Preferred security partner
Russia is emerging as the security partner of choice for a growing number of African governments in the region, displacing traditional allies like France and the United States.
Decades of conflict in East and Central Africa mirror the instability in other fragile African states where reliance on Russia’s military offerings has become increasingly prevalent, amid an aggressive push by Moscow to lessen Western influence on the continent.
Russia’s foothold in Africa expands – notably in the mineral-rich Sahel region that is beset by recurring coups, armed rebellion, and extremist insurgency.
Russia’s presence in Africa is no longer a fantasy. It is no longer the mirage it was initially believed to be, a fictitious product of information warfare. It is now a geopolitical reality, a pervasive, if not a lasting one, a reshuffling of the cards between the power’s south of the Mediterranean Sea.
In Sudan, Niger, Libya, Burkina Faso, Mali, and the Central African Republic, Moscow has been weaving a web of influence to serve its new agenda of confrontation with the West.
Over the past year and a half, the Sahel has undergone dramatic changes. These “shifting sands” have included the great Western exodus from the region, expanding relations with Moscow, and Beijing, worsening security crises, and the increasing risks of jihadi spillover to coastal West African nations in the Sahel. The evolving landscape makes it increasingly difficult for the United States to extend traditional security force assistance to counter terrorist threats.
The global power shift to Africa was bound to happen. Amidst the changing conditions in power equations, Africa, as a continent expected to account for 30% of world population within the next few decades, is already witnessing a rush of diplomatic activity in their foreground at the initiatives of all major foreign powers.
Few are paying attention, but Russia and China know the stakes
Africa still offers promise to both superpowers, as a region not yet fully developed but boasting many fast-growing economies. In their pursuit of economic gain, Russia, and China eye Africa as a fertile land of opportunity. As they race to establish economic control on the continent, it is important to carefully examine the strategies they are employing.
Are China and Russia on a Collision Course in Africa?
While China and Russia do not overtly compete in Africa, some of their objectives are misaligned which could cause problems moving forward. Although both, like all countries, keep their own interests at the forefront of their policies in Africa, China has an element of win-win cooperation within its interests which is missing from Russia’s.
Moscow sees Africa in far more instrumental terms and is more fixated on undermining Western influence, even at the cost of stability.
China’s approach is more broad-based, combining infrastructure investment, capacity building for African governments, and regional security engagement. The goal is to extend China’s model of governance to Africa and beyond and build markets for Chinese goods. For China to achieve this, it requires stability, making Russia’s role as an agent of chaos unhelpful. How much disruption Beijing is willing to tolerate is unclear, but the answer will reveal much about the state of their relationship.
“Whether Africa’s demography yields a dividend or disaster is up to its governments. Geopolitics may encourage great-power competition that the Africans can exploit. But the trend of rising nationalism and protectionism bode ill for it.”
A new Cold War, a different continent Africa, the new frontline
Africa is increasingly recognized as the next frontier for global economic growth. Africa will have 25% share of the global population by 2050.
Its potential is vast, characterized by diverse natural resources, a burgeoning youth population, and untapped innovation.
It is home to the world’s youngest and fastest-growing population, fast-growing cities, and bold innovations in everything from fintech to clean energy. These present abundant opportunities for robust, inclusive growth that harnesses its vast human potential and natural resources to increase prosperity, not just in Africa but across the world.
The question is no longer whether Africa will rise to meet the demands of a rapidly globalizing world, but how will it do so while building on its inherent strengths.
Is Africa the Continent of the Future?
The world population could reach ten billion by 2050. Every year, 30 per cent of the planet suffers from hunger, with this figure rising to 60 per cent in Africa. Yet, with its vast natural resources, Africa has the potential to not only feed its growing population expected to reach 2.5 billion by 2050, but also to significantly contribute to global food security.
The destiny of the planet lies in the development of Africa. Directing investments towards Africa must be a priority, as in African progress lies our common good.
China’s GDP is between 5 and 6 times the size of Africa’s economic output so the continent could benefit from a China-African Union free trade agreement, especially one that offers duty-free access to the vast Chinese market.
China remains the continent’s biggest bilateral trade partner. Even as lending has fallen, trade has ticked up. Thanks in part to surging demand for African minerals, especially those critical for the transition to green energy, the total trade volume in 2023 reached a record $282bn, or 9.9% of Africa’s GDP—up from less than $200bn, or 7.8% of African GDP, just four years earlier. The volume in 2023 was more than double with India, Africa’s second-biggest individual trade partner.
Africa is changing so fast it is becoming hard to ignore. In the short term, the continent faces many problems, including the Radical Islamic terror threats, but in the long term, it could rival China’s economic might.
“The question is no longer whether Africa will rise to meet the demands of a rapidly globalizing world, but how will it do so while building on its inherent strengths.”
