Regardless of how the U.S.–Israeli war on Iran ends, its conclusion is unlikely to produce stability. Instead, it will mark the beginning of a more complex and dangerous phase for the Gulf states—one defined by unresolved threats, volatile wartime objectives, and deep strategic uncertainty. It is a historically unprecedented test for the region.
War has now reached the heart of the Gulf. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is not just an episodic military escalation. It represents the collapse of the entire regional security paradigm on which the Gulf states have relied. For decades, Gulf states seemed to be living in a state of strategic exception.
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