The Indo-Pacific region is evolving as the principal axis of strategic competition unfolding between world powers in the 21st century. As the United States pushes forward a regional order based on freedom of navigation, security alliances and credible deterrence, regional powers, primarily China and North Korea, are challenging the US-established order and making headway through assertive diplomacy, military expansion, and gray zone operations. Their ambitions emanate deeply from longstanding historical disputes, especially concerning Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula. These competing interests have been putting the Indo-Pacific region in a perpetual state of strategic volatility.
The converging regional flashpoints, from the Taiwan Strait to the contested South China Sea to the Korean Peninsula, represent a highly complex and deeply interconnected theater for rapid escalation. Understanding potential pathways to war requires a thorough analysis of the structural conditions in which the deterrence threshold might collapse and the way for conflict to break out opens, either by design or miscalculation.
The converging regional flashpoints, from the Taiwan Strait to the contested South China Sea to the Korean Peninsula, represent a highly complex and deeply interconnected theater for rapid escalation
A war in the Indo-Pacific region has become increasingly possible in the past five years. The circumstances in which a conflict might occur would vary depending on multiple factors, with the only constant being the countries the United States and its allies would confront: China and North Korea. Several plausible scenarios help illuminate the conditions under which such a conflict could erupt; scenarios not intended to predict the precise course of war, but rather to clarify the strategic environments in which it may unfold.
China’s Move to Take Over Taiwan
The most feasible scenario that would lead to a war between China and the United States is a conflict over Taiwan. The scenario would consist of China conducting either an invasion or blockade of the island, in which the United States would intervene on behalf of Taiwan. The intervention would consist of the United States sending military forces to Taiwan to reinforce the island against any attempts by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to conduct an invasion.
The United States would also deploy units and equipment to areas surrounding Taiwan to prevent the PLA from entering the western Pacific and operating along Taiwan’s eastern coast. Under this plan, Japan and the Philippines would assist the United States in defending Taiwan because they permitted U.S. military units to be deployed to the Ryukyu Island Chain and Batanes Islands. This scenario will include the U.S. military mobilizing assets and forces in the eastern Pacific as well as in the continental United States to support the campaign.
US Support to Philippines in the South China Sea
Another scenario involves the United States fighting China when the former aids the Philippines in the South China Sea (SCS). This scenario would consist of the Philippines activating its Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) with the United States. The assistance would include deploying various assets, ranging from naval vessels to troops, to the Philippines to help its military against the PLA. The U.S. military would have to deploy naval vessels, including aircraft carriers, because the Philippine military would be at a significant quantitative and qualitative disadvantage compared to China.
Naval vessels, however, would only constitute half of the assistance, as the United States would also deploy aircraft and troops to islands facing the SCS to conduct operations against the PLA. The troops would specifically have two missions: the first is to utilize long-range weapon systems, such as the HIMARS or NMESIS, to destroy Chinese vessels in the SCS. The second mission is to prevent the PLA from conducting an amphibious landing along the Philippine coast. Other units would also be used to conduct beach landings on Chinese-held islands to destroy the garrisons and weapon systems. These units would also assist Philippine Marines and Army units in recapturing islands previously captured by the PLA.
North Korea’s Invasion of South Korea
There are two scenarios that would cause the United States to go to war with North Korea. The first scenario involves the U.S. military moving to assist South Korea during a conflict with North Korea. This scenario would involve the U.S. military mobilizing United States Forces Korea (USFK) units and assets to assist South Korean forces in their fight against the North Korean military. Specifically, the USFK units would be used to stop North Korea from capturing or entering the Greater Seoul Metropolitan Area and other areas along the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ).
Furthermore, US Air Force units stationed in South Korea would conduct bombing missions to destroy supply depots and Command and Control nodes along the axis of advance of the North Korean military’s Forward Line of Own Troops (FLOT). The U.S. military would also send military units from other areas, such as the continental United States, to reinforce the ones already fighting in the Korean Peninsula. These units would also participate in an invasion aimed at pushing North Korean military units back from the DMZ and potentially conducting an invasion of North Korea. For instance, the units would conduct amphibious landings in Wonsan and other locations along North Korea’s eastern and western coasts.
North Korean Strikes on US
The second scenario involves North Korea conducting missile strikes against U.S. military sites in the Indo-Pacific region or the U.S. mainland using conventionally or nuclear-armed Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM). North Korea’s rationale for launching the missiles would be to protect the regime from the perceived threat posed by the United States. The targets would include U.S. military bases in Japan and Guam, such as Yokosuka Naval Base or Andersen Air Force Base. However, North Korea would also launch its ICBMs, such as the Hwasong-18, against targets on the U.S. mainland either as part of an opening salvo or as a secondary attack.
The United States would respond with air and missile strikes against various targets throughout North Korea, ranging from missile storage facilities to command facilities. The strikes would be the first phase of a campaign to locate and destroy the sites associated with North Korea’s ballistic missile and nuclear program. The second phase would be a ground operation against the locations to both ensure and verify their destruction by air or missile strikes. The ground campaign would prompt North Korea to broaden its targets to encompass all bases in South Korea, aiming to hinder the U.S. and South Korean militaries from conducting or sustaining operations. However, the campaign could ultimately lead to a regime change and occupation of North Korea by the United States and South Korea.
Chinese Backstop
Both scenarios have the potential for China to intervene on the side of North Korea, as it did in the first Korean War. This assertion would be especially true if China viewed the United States and South Korea as conducting a regime change in North Korea. China would send PLA units and assets to North Korea and the Yellow Sea to achieve two objectives: to prevent its government from collapsing and to push the U.S. and South Korean militaries out of the country. The intervention would likely lead to a wider conflict between the United States and China in the Indo-Pacific region.
A conflict between the United States and China or North Korea is most likely to occur in the Indo-Pacific region. The scenarios would differ significantly, with a conflict between the United States and China likely involving the former defending the Philippines or Taiwan. A war between the United States and North Korea would be caused by an invasion of South Korea or missile strikes against U.S. military bases and the U.S. mainland.
The North Korea scenarios also raise the possibility of Chinese intervention, particularly if Beijing perceives a regime change effort that could lead to a unified Korea aligned with the United States along its border. While Russia’s response is less certain, it would likely be limited to intelligence sharing or logistical support, as Moscow would be reluctant to stretch its already-depleted military capabilities amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.
A war between China and the United States over Taiwan would mean other countries will assist the United States. Japan and the Philippines are the two most notable countries, as both perceive Chinese control of Taiwan to be an existential threat, albeit for different reasons. The Philippines views an invasion of Taiwan as a prelude to China fighting the country to take over SCS features it currently occupies. Japan views China’s control of Taiwan as providing it with the ability to cut off their Sea Lines of Communication, which would cause significant harm to the Japanese economy.
A war between China and the United States over Taiwan would mean other countries will assist the United States. Japan and the Philippines are the two most notable countries, as both perceive Chinese control of Taiwan to be an existential threat
Though war is undesirable, the structural conditions ensuring strategic stability are appearing to erode. This fragile climate is likely to be stirred by a US administration that is ruthless in pursuit of its own interests and often exudes contempt for wider security implications and balance of power. The administration’s nature itself poses the risk of provoking escalation.
The scenarios outlined above demonstrate an increasingly strained regional security architecture. The Indo-Pacific is not a collection of isolated flashpoints, but an interconnected web of historical rivalries, where instability in one theater will not take time to spill over into the other. The eroding deterrence, whether in the Taiwan Strait or the SCS or the Korean Peninsula, risks triggering multiple crises on multiple fronts that have the potential to overwhelm existing security alliances and exhaust crisis-management mechanisms in place.
Therefore, preparation for the worst requires more than military positioning. It calls for a recalibration of diplomatic mechanisms, reviving multilateral deterrence frameworks and a sober recognition that any future conflict in the Indo-Pacific could swiftly transcend national boundaries, triggering a cascading confrontation involving multiple major powers simultaneously.
