From technological dominance to realigning geopolitical interests, artificial intelligence is emerging as the ultimate frontier in the next phase of great-power rivalry. Artificial Intelligence, or simply AI, is evolving at such an unprecedented rate. Breakthroughs that seemed futuristic just a few years ago are now realities shaping our world.
AI is not a mere technological transformative force; it is rapidly becoming the cornerstone of 21st century geopolitics. Nations are racing to harness the power of AI in redefining military doctrines and strategies of economies to shape the world order for generations to come. Global powers are making speedy headway to dominate AI technology.
This article explores the several impacts of AI on global power. Firstly, it will shed light on the technological race between the US and China and its influence in military and intelligence fields. After that, it will move onto analyzing the profound effects on cybersecurity and the global economy.
The Strategic Value of AI
AI is now widely recognized as the capacity to transform entire economies and societies. It can be compared to electricity or the internet in their heydays.
Brookings Institution, a leading research center in its 2024 report, outlines AI’s strategic value along three parallels: economic edge, diplomatic leverage, and military superiority.
AI-driven automation and innovation can contribute to the economic paradigm. They will boost productivity, create new industries, and disrupt traditional business models. Secondly, AI can enhance a country’s soft power. It helps in setting global standards, such as export technology, shapes international norms. And lastly, it notes that AI enables faster, more accurate battlefield decisions, autonomous weapons, and advanced intelligence gathering.
“AI is not a mere technological transformative force; it is rapidly becoming the cornerstone of 21st century geopolitics. Nations are racing to harness the power of AI in redefining military doctrines and strategies of economies to shape the world order for generations to come.”
The beginning of AI-driven Era
In the past ten years, there has been greater adoption of AI. It has been integrated into every sector—from healthcare and finance to entertainment and education. Yet, its most profound impact is being felt in the arenas of geopolitics, security, and global power dynamics.
AI and the Transformation of Global Power Dynamics
AI is ushering in rapid transformations on the global landscape. Its rise is redrawing the global balance of power. Nations and regions are racing to secure technological supremacy, energy resources, and strategic alliances. The nation that leads in AI could dominate not only in economic terms but also in military, intelligence, and diplomatic arenas.
AI as a Geopolitical Force
The AI race is causing a realignment of global alliances. Recent reports and research highlight that this war or race promises to reshape the global balance of power.
According to Forbes, the world is moving toward a multi-polar AI landscape. It is evident with the US, China, and the EU each pursuing distinct strategies to achieve AI leadership.
The competition between AI superpowers extends beyond technology into diplomatic strategies. The US builds alliances like AUKUS (USA, UK, and Australia) to pool AI capabilities. China and Russia strengthen their partnership to counterbalance Western influence.
This is not just an AI competition. It is a battle for control over the global digital infrastructure in the present and future times.
Does the US-China Technological Race represent an AI Cold War?
The US and China are locked in a high stakes race to lead In AI innovation. The US is leveraging its tech giants and research infrastructure. Meanwhile, China is pursuing globally ambitious initiatives with strong government support. Both countries seek to achieve economic and geopolitical dominance through technological innovation mostly in Artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and 5G wireless.
The US is doubling down on AI investments. It seeks global mastery through public-private partnerships and alliances with major tech firms. It is investing heavily in AI infrastructure, including data centers and advanced computing systems. The US is also prioritizing STEM education and workforce development to build a skilled AI workforce.
With its tech giants like Google, Microsoft, and OpenAI, the US is leading in foundational AI research and innovation, benefiting from world-class universities, venture capital, and a culture of entrepreneurship.
China still aims to become the world leader in AI by 2030. Its ambition is driven by massive state investment, a vast pool of data, and ambitious national strategies such as the “Next Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan.” It is also leveraging its dominance in clean energy and rapid deployment of AI infrastructure. These moves are attracting global tech investment and setting the pace for AI-driven economic growth.
The US is promoting the development of both open-source and closed-source AI models. Open-source AI models can be used to foster collaboration and innovation. While closed-source models are used for specialized applications and commercial purposes.
On the other hand, China’s work in AI takes a different path. China imposes strict restrictions on AI use within its territories. Even though it presents itself as a supporter to develop artificial intelligence worldwide.
“This is not just an AI competition. It is a battle for control over the global digital infrastructure in the present and future times.”
Chinese companies like DeepSeek are obligated to adhere to the Official state narratives. This limits transparency and raises doubts about Chinese intentions in markets like the US and Europe. These markets heavily depend on freedom of data flow.
The US focuses also on securing its AI infrastructure, such as closed-source models, and preventing the theft of trade secrets. The US comprehensive national AI strategy addresses the ethical, regulatory, and security implications of AI.
This rivalry mirrors Cold War-era dynamics but with technology at its core.
Geopolitical Rivalries – The new AI Cold War
According to The Economist, a cold AI war came to the surface with US and China imposing export controls and fiercely competing for semiconductor dominance, the backbone of AI development and investing heavily in talent and infrastructure.
US Export Control
The US strategy, to date, has focused restricting China’s access to AI technologies. It is implementing export controls on advanced semiconductors and AI-related equipment. The US has resorted to using global licensing policies for exporting advanced chips used in data centers. It also implements limits on AI closed model weights, and export quotas for over 140 countries. It pursues Universal Validated End-User (UVEU) and National Validated End-User (NVEU) designations to allow trusted data centers to receive AI-related exports without individual licenses. But strict compliance requirements are in place.
Recently US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo, a loyal advocate for strict export controls, admitted that using such controls to hold back China’s progress on AI and advanced semiconductors is a “fool’s errand” (a needless or profitless endeavor).
If the US wants to stay ahead, it must not overdo building high regulatory walls and not underdo running faster to stay ahead of China. By going beyond what is necessary to ensure its security, arbitrary US restrictions cede ground to China, creating an opening for Chinese AI firms to dominate AI adoption in most nations. They are also seeking to build dominant positions in open-source AI, cloud infrastructure, and global data ecosystems. According to Bloomberg, for all of Washington’s might, it is yet to be seen whether the US can maintain its lead over China in developing more sophisticated AI systems.
“The race in producing semiconductors, which are considered as ‘the crude oil’ of AI age, is one of the most major areas of competition between the US and China.”
China’s Expansion
Meanwhile, China is positioning itself in a technology leadership role in emerging markets. It provides cloud services and internet access via 5G wireless capabilities. These offerings make it easy for these markets to then adopt Chinese AI within their systems. Through companies like Alibaba and Huawei, China is trying to dominate the 5G market. Such dominance is raising concerns in the United States as a threat to national security.
According to Wilson Center, China’s affordable AI solutions are attracting emerging markets. Those emerging markets have been frustrated by U.S. restrictions on AI exports. Meanwhile, the U.S. employs chokepoint tactics to limit China’s access to advanced semiconductors. However, these moves risk pushing China toward greater independence in critical technologies.
Chinese startup DeepSeek has unveiled an AI model that it says is competitive with OpenAI’s technology. Chinese AI models now achieve near-equivalent results using fewer compute resources. It is a significant milestone in their quest for technological self-sufficiency.
The Semiconductor Battleground
The race in producing semiconductors, which are considered as “the crude oil” of AI age, is one of the most major areas of competition between the US and China. Both are intensifying their efforts to boost domestic chip production through heavy investments and research.
Technically, the Chinese Deep seek is not considered as a direct competitor of American AI platforms. It concentrates on optimizing the recent types of AI instead of developing new ones. Such development is not deemed capable to compete with the pioneering innovations of the United States.
While the US Congress’ CHIPS Act aims to stimulate domestic semiconductor manufacturing, it also attempts to stymie China’s progress with restrictions. Nonetheless, TikTok’s Chinese owner ByteDance is said to be investing billions in AI infrastructure, while Huawei is presenting its own AI chips.
Recent reports from 2024 indicate that both countries are pouring billions into “chip sovereignty”. The outcome of this battle will have far-reaching implications for global tech leadership.
The New Geopolitical Chessboard
The US and China are not the only competitors strongly gravitating towards AI.
The European Union, Russia, India, and other emerging powers are also in the fray.
Perhaps realizing AI’s strategic necessity like that of steam or electricity in past industrial revolutions, these emerging powers are engaged in rapidly building their own AI capabilities to rise to new heights, potentially disrupting traditional alliances, and creating new power centers.
The EU’s new “AI Continent Action Plan” (April 2025) signals a shift toward regional AI blocs, aiming to pool resources and set standards, though concerns remain that heavy regulation could stifle innovation.
The US is strengthening ties with allies like Japan, South Korea, and the EU to create secure supply chains and set international AI standards.
China, on the other hand, is building partnerships across Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, exporting AI technologies and infrastructure.
AI & Climate Dynamics
Leading strategists, policy makers and researchers are also concerned about AI-Climate dynamics.
At a symposium held by Northwestern University’s Buffett Institute for Global Affairs on AI and geopolitics, Institute Director Deborah Cohen said, “We’re in the midst of at least three major interlaced transformations to the world order that all have AI at their center and cannot be understood without each other”.
“There’s generative AI, which is changing our economies, societies, and politics in ways that we have only started to grasp. There is the geopolitical transformation that we have seen playing out over the past few decades as US supremacy has given way to a multipolar world.”
Cohen added, “And there’s the climate crisis, to which AI data centers, with their vast energy requirements, seem at this moment to be an accelerant.”
Data centers that power artificial intelligence are hungry for energy – for instance, a request to ChatGPT is said to require about five times as much electricity as a regular Google search.
Cegal, a global tech powerhouse specializing in energy, also highlights enormous strain on the power grid, which is struggling to keep up with the growing demand for clean energy.
Safety & Misuse
Similarly, Ruby Scanlon, research Assistant in the Technology and National Security Program at the Center for New American Studies in Washington, DC, during the symposium raised concern about the race of AI dominance impeding the ability to develop safe and responsible AI.
“The United States and China are racing to the frontier, and that is going to cause leading AI labs to be hasty with their deployment of models without sufficiently red teaming the models with government agencies. Rush for quicker deployment might disregard safety measures.”
There is yet another side that this AI race might bring along yet this time it is by bad actors that include extremist organizations and rogue groups who seek weaponizing of advanced AI models to create harm, destabilize societies and gain wealth. They would be much more likely to abuse AI capabilities with little hesitation and expand their capabilities in terror, disruption, and crime.
AI for the Common Good?
With all these ramifications, and to harness AI benefits while mitigating its challenges, the global leaders developing AI technology must jointly identify such real threats, put solutions together, prioritize ethical guidelines, and invest in equitable access to technology.
While some like AI Planet advocate for global cooperation on AI, most nations are still prioritizing national or regional advantage, keeping breakthroughs closely guarded. The risk lies ahead because a fragmented world where AI advances deepen divides, unless frameworks for responsible, inclusive AI development are established.
As the world navigates this new era of geopolitical transformation, the stakes have never been higher for ensuring that AI serves as a force for global stability rather than division.
Now, the dynamic is to see to what extent will global powers collaborate while they keep this fierce competition on.
So, who Is going to win the AI Race?
No single winner has emerged in the AI race leadership yet. “The race between China and United States is tighter than ever, and no one has a clear lead,” according to the 2025 Stanford AI Index.
The US currently leads in foundational AI models and talent, but China is making rapid progress, especially in applying AI to industry and integrating AI into consumer devices.
MIT Technology Review notes that while the U.S. initially had an advantage in advanced computational resources and research, China’s focus on efficiency and indigenous innovation is closing the gap.
Chinese AI models have reached near parity with US models on key performance benchmarks. China leads in AI-related publications and patents. China is also innovating in efficiency, achieving competitive results with fewer resources, and focusing on expanding AI adoption in emerging markets, notes MIT Technology Review.
According to AXIOS, picking a winner in AI depends on which of factors you are watching closely and how there is more than one way to win. “We see big tech companies have the advantage due to resources and the ability to acquire innovative startups, but nimble startups and open-source projects continue to drive breakthroughs.”
However, the United States remains the global leader especially in the development of notable AI models and the concentration of elite AI talent, with forty significant models released in 2024 compared to China’s 15 and Europe’s mere three.
According to the 2025 AI INDEX REPORT published by AEI, major US companies like OpenAI, Google, and Microsoft remain at the forefront of innovation and infrastructure.
Europe is gaining ground but still lags the US and China in both model output and global influence.
AI in Military and Intelligence Fields: The New Arms Race
AI’s military applications are already reshaping warfare. Both the US and China are deploying autonomous drones and AI-driven target identification to advanced command-and-control systems to gain battlefield advantages.
Military applications
The use of AI to process real-time battlefield data allows for rapid adaptation and precision strikes.
Planning and Decision-making
AI helps military commanders process and analyze vast amounts of data from satellites and sensors. Communications are quick and accurate. Such processes contribute to improved planning, risk prediction, and faster and more accurate strategic decision-making.
AI-assisted maintenance
AI can predict malfunctions in military equipment and proactively maintain them, extending their lifespan and reducing costs.
Combat Simulation and Training
AI systems provide realistic simulation environments to train soldiers in complex combat scenarios. Such environments enhance readiness. Autonomous drones and smart missiles increase their accuracy and reduce human and civilian casualties.
“The US and China are deploying autonomous drones and AI-driven target identification to advanced command-and-control systems to gain battlefield advantages.”
Target Recognition
AI is used to analyze images and videos to accurately identify targets and monitor potential threats, giving forces a strategic advantage on the battlefield.
Recent conflicts, such as Russia-Ukraine war, have demonstrated how AI can accelerate military applications. Be it decision making, enhanced surveillance, or automated lethal targeting, all these raise profound ethical and humanitarian concerns.
Intelligence Gathering
AI is a key element in intelligence work. Its ability to process and analyze massive data sets is immense.
China’s Facial Recognition Technology
China uses facial recognition extensively in its public security apparatus. It tracks individuals, including dissenters and ethnic minorities, as part of a broader surveillance strategy. The country’s AI driven social credit systems merge big data and surveillance technologies. This enables unprecedented levels of monitoring and social control.
Addressing such growing concerns about the risks posed by the widespread use of facial recognition technology, Reuters reported that the Cyber Space Administration of China (CAC) published regulations regarding the technology’s use. CAC has clarified, “Individuals who do not agree to identify verifications through facial information should be provided with other reasonable and convenient options.”
CIA’s Predictive Analysis
Research made by the Alliance for Citizen Engagement (ACE) points out that US intelligence agencies are also using AI. Predictive analytics help them analyze vast data sets, forecast threats, and identify hidden patterns. The application extends to those related to terrorist and criminal networks as well.
TechXplore’s recent report shows that AI driven platforms such as the CIA’s OSIRIS help analysts process vast amounts of open source and classified data. The platform also generates annotated summaries, and highlights connections that would be difficult to detect manually.
AI represents a revolution in the military and intelligence fields, enhancing efficiency and innovation. But it requires careful management of ethical and technical challenges to ensure maximum benefit while minimizing potential risks.
AI and Cybersecurity: A Double-Edged Sword
AI is revolutionizing cyber security. It is making threat and malware detection faster and most cost effective. Its automated systems can isolate affected systems, patch vulnerabilities, and even counterattack in some cases.
AI can also prevent fraud; financial institutions use it to detect suspicious transactions and prevent cybercrime.
Despite all these benefits, AI is still viewed as a double-edged sword, because of lowering the barrier for cyber criminals, increasing the scale and the complexity of attacks.
According to research by The Advanced Computing Systems Associations, USENIX, both attackers and defenders adopt AI tools. The cyber battlefield is becoming more crowded and unpredictable. This has led to a new era of “algorithmic warfare,” where digital battles are fought at machine speed.
A 2024 report by the World Economic Forum warns that AI-driven cyberattacks are becoming more frequent and sophisticated, outpacing current defense capabilities.
Hence the need for international cooperation given the borderless nature of cyberspace.
The US and EU have launched joint initiatives to share threat intelligence and develop common standards, but geopolitical tensions often hinder broader collaboration.
AI and the Global Economy: Disruption and Opportunity
Economic Transformation
The ways we live, and work are transformed by AI. So how much will technology impact business, consumers, and the economy more? Employees want to know what AI means for their jobs and income while businesses are asking how they can capitalize on the opportunities that AI presents and where investments should be targeted.
AI is expected to contribute trillions of dollars to the global economy over the next decade. According to consulting firm PwC (PricewaterhouseCoopers) research on Global Artificial Intelligence, AI could add $15.7 trillion to global GDP (Gross Domestic Product) by 2030. It will drive productivity gains, automation, and new products and services.
PWC’s analysis highlights that labor productivity improvements(automation) will account for over half of all economic gains from AI. Increased consumer demand from AI-enabled product enhancements will account for the rest. AI-enabled product enhancements may include breakthroughs in drug discovery, climate modeling, and personalized medicine, apart from automation dividends. It also covers emergent new business models ranging from autonomous vehicles to smart cities.
“The next decade will be critical in defining the rules, norms, and values that govern the AI age and, by extension, the future of global prosperity.”
Labor Market Disruption
Al’s impact on jobs is a major concern. The disruption comes with automation-induced displacement of jobs while also creating new roles, according to PwC and World Economic Forum reports. AI may create new roles in data science, engineering, and ethics, but also threatens millions of jobs in sectors like transportation, customer service, and manufacturing.
Governments and companies are investing in reskilling and education, but the pace of change poses significant social and political challenges. A study by OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) found that up to 27% of jobs in advanced economies are at risk due to automation by 2030.
Though the economy is set to benefit from AI contribution through increased productivity and efficiency leading to reduced costs and increased profits, the bitter truth is AI may lead to job losses in traditional sectors. But on the bright side, it opens new employment opportunities in advanced technology sectors often requiring people to work alongside AI.
Challenges of AI Divide
Yet the challenges that are floating on the surface are still a long way from resolution.
The world is witnessing geopolitical competition between major powers to develop advanced AI technologies, which could lead to trade and political tensions.
Despite the significant benefits AI offers in enhancing efficiency and security, it poses challenges that require a balance between innovation and regulation to ensure maximum benefits while minimizing potential risks.
Countries and regions that lag in AI adoption risk falling further behind economically. Efforts to bridge the digital divide (through investment in infrastructure, education, and inclusive policies) will be crucial to ensuring that AI benefits are broadly shared.
As the AI revolution unfolds, the choices made by governments, companies, and individuals will be of paramount importance. They will determine whether it becomes a force for progress or a source of division. The next decade will be critical in defining the rules, norms, and values that govern the AI age and, by extension, the future of global prosperity.
How will the post-AI world look like?
Prominent data driven marketing organizations, such as Tech Target, envision the near future of AI leading to key changes and different scenarios.
Accelerated Pace of Life and Work
After wide adoption of AI among the masses, decision-making and service delivery of businesses, government units and nonprofits will be much faster. Across the breadth of society, people will feel the increased tempo of engagements with large institutions. People will feel life speeding up as AI becomes embedded in daily interactions and institutions.
Transformation of Jobs and Economy
Business automation has naturally led to fears over job losses, many traditional jobs will be automated, especially in fields like law, transportation, and manufacturing. While some jobs will disappear, new roles will emerge, often requiring people to work alongside AI, according to an article titled “The future of AI: How Artificial Intelligence Will Change the World” published on Tech jobs platform, Built in.
Some experts foresee the possibility of universal basic income addressing widespread unemployment, while others cast doubt over increased inequality, if wealth from AI is not distributed fairly.
Healthcare and Quality of Life
AI will revolutionize healthcare through precision medicine, improved diagnostics, and AI-assisted surgeries, leading to better outcomes and more personalized treatment. AI-powered robots may care for the elderly and assist with daily tasks, enhancing quality of life for many.
Societal and Cultural Shifts
A case study done by TechUK on AI’s positive impact on society shows that AI will reshape education with personalized learning, and transform how people interact with technology, making AI-enabled tools as common as email.
While the fabric of society will change with shifts in trust, inclusion, and participation,
AI could help reduce bias in hiring and decision-making but also raise concerns about privacy and accountability.
Speculative Futures
According to Elon University’s study “AI Impact by 2040”, some scenarios imagine an “age of abundance” with AI solving major scientific and environmental challenges, while others warn of social unrest and loss of human agency.
Likewise, American Enterprise Institute’s new Center for Technology, Science and Energy notes the pace of progress in AI has led many AI leaders to believe that artificial general intelligence (AGI) may arrive sooner than expected.
The arrival of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) could bring unpredictable changes, from radical acceleration of innovation to fundamental shifts in what it means to work, learn, and live.
Leading researcher and CEO of AI start-up Anthropic, Dario Amodei says, “By 2027, we will have such AI systems that will have intellectual capabilities matching or exceeding those of Nobel Prize winners across most disciplines, including biology, computer science, mathematics and engineering.”
The ability to navigate all interfaces available to a human doing digital work today, including the ability to process and generate text, audio, and video. The ability to autonomously control technological instruments like mic and keyboards, and the ability to access and browse the Internet.
In addition, AI will have the capacity to autonomously reason through complex tasks over extended periods, hours, days or even weeks, and the ability to interface with the physical world, such as robotics, according to him.
In a nutshell,the post-AI world will be faster, more automated, and deeply transformed—offering both remarkable benefits and serious challenges. The outcome depends on how societies manage these changes, distribute benefits, and address ethical risks.
Socially, AI will influence how people interact, with a mix of humans, AI-enabled machines, and hybrids becoming the norm. Hyper-personalized experiences based on emotional and behavioral data will be vast. AI is expected to drive major advances, improve outcomes and enable new solutions in healthcare, education, and environmental sustainability.
However, experts also warn of significant risks: job displacement, increased inequality, privacy concerns, and the potential for autonomous AI systems to surpass human control, leading to unpredictable consequences.
When asked an AI program, if Artificial Intelligence will end humanity as shown in the movie – Matrix, it said:
“Most experts agree that it is very unlikely AI will end humanity in the dramatic way shown in movies like the Matrix. While advanced AI—especially artificial general intelligence (AGI)—could theoretically pose an existential risk, most researchers believe such a scenario is improbable with current technology.”
The main risks today are more practical: misuse by humans (such as weaponization, manipulation, or job displacement), loss of control over complex systems, and the potential to use AI to harm society. Some experts and reports warn that, without proper regulation and oversight, future AI could become dangerous or uncontrollable, but this is seen as a risk to be managed—not an inevitable outcome.
In summary, while AI presents real and serious challenges, the idea of humanity being enslaved or wiped out by AI remains a hypothetical and highly debated possibility, not a future.”
