Assad’s departure has altered Syria’s leadership landscape, but it has not translated into coherent state reconstitution. Political fragmentation has become structurally embedded in the post-Assad political order. Syria is not undergoing a conventional political transition. Rather, it is consolidating into a post-regime, pre-state environment.
The ongoing dynamics in Tehran, from sustained domestic social tension and deepening economic crisis to evolving deterrence messaging amid continued diplomatic stagnation, should not be viewed as isolated episodes. Rather, they indicate a convergence of drivers that is reshaping both Iran’s internal resilience as well as its external posture shaped by international pressure.
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