The new United States National Security Strategy (NSS) of 2025 codifies a strategic turn away from the ambition of global guardianship towards a hierarchical ordering of interests, in which allies are explicitly ranked and held to account. Europe and other partners are no longer treated as pillars of a liberal order, but as subordinate actors.

By Alexander Dubowy

When US helicopters thudded low over Caracas in the early hours of January 3rd and explosions lit up Fuerte Tiuna and La Carlota Air Base, the strategic script felt eerily familiar, especially to anyone who remembers Manuel Noriega being flown out of Panama on January 3rd, 1990.

By Alexander Dubowy

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has actively reshaped Europe’s deterrence landscape. The political uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump’s return to the White House has renewed calls for European strategic autonomy and intensified doubts about the long-term reliability of US extended nuclear deterrence in European capitals.

By Alexander Dubowy

Donald Trump’s second term has not restored the familiar rhythm of transatlantic cooperation. Instead, it has accelerated a shift that began during his first presidency, where security, diplomacy and economic power increasingly moved away from a shared strategic framework and toward a model defined by negotiation and conditional commitments.

By Alexander Dubowy

European defense debates increasingly revolve around budget targets, procurement coordination, and the aspiration for “strategic autonomy”. However, these efforts skirt around a far more fundamental issue: the lack of industrial and energy depth necessary to sustain credible military power. War is not only decided by technology and manpower, but also by production.

By Alexander Dubowy

As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine nears its fourth year, Russia has entered a new phase of permanent mobilization. What began as a military campaign has evolved into a system of governance that merges fiscal, financial, and industrial power under the logic of war. The Kremlin is managing an economy engineered for resilience, discipline, and control.

By Alexander Dubowy

The Ukraine War is not the beginning of a new stage of warfare. It is the compression of everything modern conflict has been for the past seventy years. The lessons learned in the Korean trenches, Vietnamese jungles, and Iraqi deserts have been condensed into a single, accelerated system of technological and doctrinal adaptation.

By Alexander Dubowy

Alexander Dubowy

NSS 2025: From Guardianship to Hierarchy

Caracass 2026: Decapitation and Multipolar Disorder

Europe’s Layered Deterrence and Nuclear Grey Zone

Trump’s Pivot and the New Transatlantic Order

Europe’s Exposed Strategic Gap

Built to Endure: Inside Russia’s War Economy

Ukraine’s War: Time, The Perilous Front

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