Iran After Snapback: Isolation and Pressure

Iran has returned to international isolation after the European troika (Germany, France, and the UK) activated the “snapback” mechanism on September 28, 2025, following Tehran exceeding the uranium enrichment limits set by the 2015 agreement. The enrichment level reached around 60%, far above the agreed maximum limit of 3.6%.

After a decade of sanctions relief, attempts by Tehran and European parties to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, which was signed during Barack Obama’s administration but revoked by President Donald Trump in 2018, have failed. The Trump administration then imposed harsher sanctions on Tehran, resetting the situation to square one.
Despite Iran’s efforts to buy time through talks with European countries, the E3 recently concluded that dialogue is no longer effective, especially after the US strikes targeting nuclear facilities in Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow.

With the reimposition of UN sanctions after a one-month grace period, the Iranian currency plunged to unprecedented levels against the US dollar on the black market. Meanwhile, living conditions have deteriorated due to rising prices of basic goods, declining oil revenues, and slowing economic growth.

These sanctions deepen Iran’s economic crisis. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects growth to decline to 0.3%, inflation to reach 43.3%, exports to drop by 16%, and imports to fall by 10%. The country’s GDP for 2024 stood at approximately $436.9 billion, with a population exceeding 91 million, highlighting a growing gap between resources and needs.

Before the sanctions came into effect, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that Washington demanded that Tehran hand over its entire stockpile of enriched uranium in return for extended sanctions relief, a demand Pezeshkian described as completely unacceptable. Earlier this year, Washington and Tehran held talks on a new agreement, but Iran withdrew after a major Israeli offensive in June that lasted 12 days.

Today, amid an intensifying economic and political siege, Iran faces a dual test: growing external isolation and internal pressures manifesting through collapsing popular trust and declining regime legitimacy. The key question remains: can the regime absorb this new shock, or will the sanctions trigger a wider wave of public anger that destabilizes the system and threatens its internal cohesion?